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Payments

12 December 2024

 

10 top payments trends for 2025 — and beyond

From simplifying payments of all kinds — retail, commercial, cross-border, blockchain — to making digital interactions more secure, technology and innovative partnerships are continuing to transform how we transact.

A woman with shopping bags looks at her phone near a busy street.

Vicki Hyman

Director, Communications, Mastercard

Within just the past few years, payments have transformed entirely — tap to pay has become even more prevalent, traditional financial institutions are exploring blockchain and generative AI is emerging as critical to boosting fraud protection rates by as much as 300%. Borders are no longer barriers to global trade, instant access to earnings is the expectation, not a perk and paper checks and physical wallets are fast becoming museum pieces — at least among the youngest of us.

Continued advances in tech are ushering more people and businesses into the digital economy every day and it’s driving demand for trusted interactions and raising the bar for simplicity and seamlessness. For example, in an effort to make online checkout as efficient as physical, Mastercard recently announced that by 2030, shoppers won’t even need a physical card number or have to punch in a password or one-time code to make a transaction online, thanks to the combination of tokenisation, biometric authentication and the Click to Pay digital wallet.

And the virtuous circle keeps spinning. Technologies are coalescing faster than ever, refining capabilities, generating new use cases and even creating new business models. We spoke with a range of Mastercard leaders across the company and here are 10 trends they say could affect that way we pay in 2025.  

Outsmarting AI fraudsters ... with AI

Cyber criminals are already harnessing generative AI to produce deep-fake videos and uber-personalised phishing messages to steal money or data and cybercrime is expected to grow to $10 trillion annually in 2025. But this weapon is also a tool, as companies are training AI models to predict and neutralise threats in real time. Mastercard’s Decision Intelligence Pro uses gen AI to scan 1 trillion data points to predict in less than 50 milliseconds whether a transaction is likely to be genuine or not, boosting fraud protection rates by an average of 20% and as much as 300% in some instances. In the UK, Mastercard’s Consumer Fraud Risk solution uses AI to detect authorised payment scams and stop them before money even leaves the victim’s account.

Small business, bigger toolboxes

The small businesses that survived — and indeed thrived — during the pandemic were often the ones that quickly embraced electronic payments, e-commerce and other digital touchpoints. But an online presence is only the tip of the iceberg. Small businesses are increasingly able to access a wide range of digital tools and services previously out of reach or scattered among so many different platforms that they were difficult to manage. Centralised platforms uniquely tailored to the needs of small businesses are letting owners automate administrative tasks and create personalised marketing and loyalty campaigns, with data-driven insights to guide decision-making. 

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A new era of digital inclusion

In developing and emerging markets, digital wallets are increasingly playing the role of a bank account and capturing the large majority of consumers and businesses. While these digital wallets are addressing unbanked populations head-on by delivering simple, convenient and affordable experiences, there’s been a disconnect in connecting traditional, card-based payments for international consumers. To help solve this, Mastercard Pay Local was launched to make it possible for cardholders to link their credit or debit cards to a local digital wallet — allowing them to shop at merchants without needing to set up or top up a prepaid account. Digital wallets will continue to evolve into comprehensive platforms, integrating payments, identity, loyalty and even healthcare — an essential way for people to navigate their daily lives. The leaders will be those who create intuitive, interoperable ecosystems.  

Digital identity on-demand

A trusted identity is the foundation of the digital economy, enabling people to interact how, where and when they want with complete confidence. Biometrics, machine learning and identity insights are already supercharging authentication throughout a customer’s journey. The adoption of passkeys — passwordless authentication most often powered by users’ biometrics — is propelling this and will gain momentum in 2025. We’ll start to see digital identity fuelling experiences in healthcare, education and public services, where people will be able to selectively share their identity with anyone, without friction and with privacy at the centre. In Europe, for example, Mastercard is launching a service that allows merchants to verify that a consumer meets the criteria to purchase certain goods or services through their payment card — no uploading of documents necessary.

A woman in a yellow pullover smiles at her smartphone.

Making B2B as easy as ABC

Corporate payments have been slower to evolve to the digital world, but that’s changing as businesses realise the benefits of virtual cards — temporary card numbers randomly generated and linked to a funding account that has an established line of credit. It creates automated reconciliation that cuts down on human error and offers companies real-time data insights and more control over spending. By embedding payments in enterprise resource planning software, businesses are able to make real-time payments, prevent fraud and manage costs more efficiently. For small businesses, the total market for embedded finance could be worth up to $124 billion in 2025. For these enterprises the possibilities are endless, from customer loyalty apps and digital wallets tp accounting software and shopping basket platforms. 

Checkout gets a glow-up

With contactless payments now accounting for more than two out of every three in-person purchases on the Mastercard network, the tech has cemented its place in driving fast and secure consumer payments. But there’s more to the tech beyond a shopper simply tapping their card or phone in the shop. Tap on Phone technology, which turns any device into a payment acceptance terminal, is already democratising acceptance for merchants, from solopreneurs to larger retailers, reducing the need for complex checkout infrastructure and shortening wait times, among other benefits. As physical and digital experiences continue to converge, we’ll see more applications of tapping tech across a range of commerce use cases, from verifying a transaction to instantly adding your card to your mobile wallet or even sending money to friends and family.

A person holds a contactless card against a smartphone enabled with Tap on Phone to make a payment.

Real time comes of age

Real-time payments systems are now available in more than 100 countries, with 575 billion RTP transactions expected by 2028, representing 27% of all electronic payments globally. Real-time payments are providing greater consumer choice of ways to pay and be paid.  As countries move to interlink their domestic schemes, cross-border payments will become more seamless. And more interoperability between real-time payments and other methods of payment, such as central bank digital currencies and digital assets, will make it easier to enable transactions between traditional bank accounts and digital currency accounts.

The rise of collaborative ecosystems

The world is so interconnected and technology is evolving so quickly that success can no longer happen in a silo. Partnerships are evolving from mere tactical alignments and agreements on paper to genuine collaborations that co-create solutions and accelerate large-scale innovation. Financial institutions, corporations, governments and fintechs are embedding technologies, driving efficiencies, unlocking value and enhancing experiences. Fintechs in particular will continue to play a key role in simplifying financial services and delivering integrated and accessible tools that expand the benefits of the digital economy and ensure trust.

A man with his shirtsleeves rolled up looks at a technical drawing on a whiteboard while colleagues look on.

Banking on blockchain

The maturation of blockchain and digital assets in recent years has proven that the technology has transformative potential to enhance global finance and commerce systems. Cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and tokenised assets have moved from concept to commercialisation, particularly as relates to their applicability to real-world assets. In 2025, bet on blockchain technology to enhance speed, security and efficiency, especially when it comes to B2B and commercial payments. Its ability to do so will continue to require strategic partnership with crypto natives and financial institutions alike to create more efficient and secure payment solutions.

The token economy

Tokenisation is key to Mastercard’s vision to eliminate manual card entry by 2030 and it’s driving the adoption of in-car commerce (pun intended), but its potential beyond card payments is immense. For example, tokenisation technology can enable consumers to share their shopping habits and preferences with merchants on digital platforms to access more relevant offers and discounts, all without revealing their personal data. And the tokenisation of assets through blockchain technology can digitise and optimise any economic activity — from capital markets to trade finance to exchanging a land title or a carbon credit.