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Commerce

December 11, 2025    

 

2026 playbook: 5 macro forces changing commerce now

People are demanding a more thoughtful, meaningful way forward, seizing creative freedom, investing in their own vitality and demanding more intentional living.

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Cheryl Guerin profile photo

Cheryl Guerin

Executive Vice President, Global Brand Strategy & Innovation,

Mastercard

Over the last 12 months, we’ve watched as AI adoption, economic restructuring and new cultural trends have rapidly reshaped the contours of our lives. Now it’s time to look at how those shifting tides will transform us over the next 12 months.

People are craving a more deliberate, more predictable world, especially when it comes to spending their money or selecting trusted financial partners. Here’s our take on the five macro forces that surfaced in commerce over the past year, fleshed out in our new white paper, “The age of authentic intentionality,” and how brands can use them to strengthen partnerships and help clients and customers navigate unchartered waters.

 

Inner circles

Globally, only 42% of people trust social media for news and information. In response to these increasingly leery audiences, creators and influencers are reconsidering how they connect online. They’re shifting to more intimate, even private, communities that foster a sense of trust and belonging. All of which has given rise to subscription culture with over half of Gen Z and millennials paying for at least one creator-led membership service. It’s a trend that can unlock new revenue streams for providers who do it well. And brands can help by ensuring consumers have an easy and swift way to subscribe, thus growing a digital economy that’s built on trust, taste and deeper relationships. 

 

Agentic essentialism

Offloading mundane tasks to AI to create extra time is becoming the norm for more and more consumers. Autonomous helpers can do everything from filing businesses expenses to picking a wine for dinner, all of which demonstrates how technology can free our minds. Boston Consulting Group estimates that by 2028, 29% of global digital purchases could be initiated or completed by AI. That makes trust in the digital economy ever more crucial. Using AI, brands can help consumers use agentic tools to enhance their experiences, and develop better, more meaningful relationships in the process.

 

Well-being as an investment class

The market for well-being tourism is expected to hit $1 trillion by the end of the decade, bringing with it unprecedented opportunities. Similarly, predictive health tools, such as wearables, are becoming standard wardrobe features, as is any experience that allows people to reduce stress, unplug from life’s demands and revitalize themselves. Consumers are seeking brands that can help them access exclusive or customized experiences. Creating seamless, well-being ecosystems can help brands become trusted and valued partners.

 

Creator monetization redefined

Creativity and craftsmanship are surging — along with monetization capabilities — with an assist from generative AI and stablecoin, which allows anyone, anywhere to become global entrepreneurs. Whether it’s paying suppliers in real time or accepting foreign currency effortlessly, faster and borderless monetization means creators everywhere hold the keys to success in their own hands. But they’ll need help with things like entering new markets and protecting their work, which is where brands with global reach and secure, reliable networks can shine. 

 

Reclaiming space

Buildings are being reimagined and repurposed as new environments that calm, nurture and invite connections for consumers who are weary of social isolation. It might be an abandoned factory given new life as a cultural hub or empty department stores revitalized as wellness centers or mixed-use social areas. Whatever the transformation, these hybrid spaces are going to increasingly be seen as necessary to strengthen and connect communities and their residents. By supporting their creation — and ensuring these spaces remain accessible, inclusive and restorative — companies can help communities, small businesses and their own partners flourish.

The age of authentic intentionality

Technology, well-being, community and sustainability are converging to shape the future of human connection and economic behavior. Learn more about these trends in Mastercard’s new white paper. 

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