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Asia/Pacific Markets Bounce Back as Consumer Confidence Rises: MasterCard Index
− Region Bounces Back with Nine out of 14 Markets Showing Improved Confidence
Japan, 15 August 2012 - Consumer confidence has picked up across Asia/Pacific markets as concerns about slow growth lessen in the region, according to the latest MasterCard Worldwide Index™ of Consumer Confidence, released today. The MasterCard Worldwide Index™ of Consumer Confidence ("Index") is based on a survey conducted between 24 April 2012 and 10 June 2012 on 11,376 respondents aged 18 - 64 in 25 countries within Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa. This is the 39th survey of consumer confidence conducted since 1993. Now in its 20th year the Index is Asia/Pacific’s most comprehensive and longest running consumer confidence survey. The Index score is calculated with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral. The Index and its accompanying reports do not represent MasterCard’s financial performance. Consumers in the region remain most optimistic in the markets of India (82.1 Index points), China (77.4), Vietnam (77.2) and Thailand (75.8), while the least optimistic markets are Japan (23.6), Taiwan (25.7) and Australia (39.2). Overall, nine out of 14 Asia/Pacific1 markets polled recorded positive improvements when compared to the second half of 2011 with a regional rise from 52.1 Index points in the second half of 2011 to 57.2 index points in the first half of 2012. The last MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence showed an improvement in sentiment for only 5 out of the 14 markets. For the region as a whole increases were recorded across all key indicators of regular income (from 64.5 to 71.9 Index points), employment (49.3 to 54.0 Index points), economy (49.3 to 51.8 Index points), quality of life (49.6 to 51.7 Index points) and stock market (47.9 to 56.5 Index points). ［ 1 Asia/Pacific: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam ]Japanese consumer confidence has been very pessimistic since the economic crisis of 2008, however positive improvements were recorded when compared to the second half of 2011 with a rise from 16.2 Index points in the second half of 2011 to 23.6 Index points in the first half of 2012. Confidence among Japanese consumers showed some improvement in their expectations across all five key indicators of regular income (from 14.6 to 23.4 Index points), employment (16.6 to 24.0 Index points), economy (15.0 to 24.3 Index points), quality of life (12.6 to 14.0 Index points) and stock market (22.0 to 32.3 Index points). Hong Kong, which dropped 38.7 Index points in the last Index, improved by 21.9 Index points to lead the region, followed closely by South Korea (up 21.4 Index points), Malaysia (up 17.1 Index points) and New Zealand (up 15.3 Index points). Indonesia recorded the single largest deterioration in consumer confidence (down 18.7 Index points) followed by the Philippines (down 11.8 Index points). Consumer confidence in the economy plummeted in Indonesia (from 74.9 to 33.3 Index Points), with employment also falling from 70.6 to 40.8 Index Points. “The latest reading of consumer confidence in Asia/Pacific reflects the increasingly complex mix of key influences affecting the region. The first is the global environment, which continues to be weak and riddled with uncertainty, especially in Europe. The second is the slowdown in China, which has been affecting many key regional markets that are China-centric in their exports. The third is the strength of the domestic markets in sustaining growth with home-grown demand. While the global environment affects all markets in Asia/Pacific, the slowdown in China has had more severe impact on Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. On the other hand, Vietnam has been a major beneficiary of low end manufacturing relocating from China in the recent past. India, being the least dependent on either global or China demand, is by far the most domestic oriented among the key markets in the region. It’s relative optimism reflects the perception that the economy has become more stable after growth declining for two years,” said Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, global economic advisor, MasterCard Worldwide. MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence—1st half 2012
MethodologyRespondents were asked 5 questions pertaining to their 6-month outlook on the economy, employment prospects, the local stock market, their regular income prospects and their quality of life. The results of their responses were converted in 5 component indexes which were averaged to form the MasterCard Worldwide Index™ of Consumer Confidence (MWICC) score. The MWICC Index score and the 5 component index scores range from 0 - 100 where 0 represents maximum pessimism, 100 represents maximum optimism and 50 represents neutrality. About the MasterCard Worldwide Index™ of Consumer ConfidenceThe MasterCard Worldwide Index™ of Consumer Confidence survey has a 20-year track record of consumer confidence indices collected from over 200,000 interviews, unequalled both in scope and history across Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa. The MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence is the most comprehensive and longest running survey of its kind in the region. In June 1997, the Index revealed a decline in consumer confidence - one month prior to the devaluation of the Thai baht that triggered the regional economic crisis. In June 2003, the Index score for Employment in Hong Kong dropped to a low score of 20.0. This was subsequently reflected in Hong Kong’s unemployment rate, which peaked just before September 2003 at eight percent. The survey comprising the Asia/Pacific markets began in the first half of 1993 and has been conducted twice yearly since. Markets from the Middle East and Africa were included in the Index from 2004. Twenty five markets now participate in the survey: Australia, China, Egypt, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Oman, Philippines, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, South Africa, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. The latest MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence survey was conducted from 24 April 2012 to 10 June 2012. A total of 11,376 respondents qualified respondents were surveyed in the 25 markets with the sample being representative of the middle and upper income groups in each market. The Index is calculated based with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral. Five economic factors are measured: Employment, the Economy, Regular Income, Stock Market and Quality of Life. The responses are consumers' thoughts on the six months ahead. Data collection was via internet surveys and face to face interviews, with the questionnaire translated to the local language wherever appropriate and necessary. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four to five percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. MasterCard and its Suite of Research PropertiesThe MasterCard Worldwide Index suite in Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa includes the long-running MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence, as well as the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Women’s Advancement, Online Shopping, Index of Financial Literacy, and the Index of Global Destination Cities. In addition to the Indices, MasterCard’s research properties also include a range of consumer surveys including Ethical Spending and a series on Consumer Purchasing Priorities (covering Travel, Dining & Entertainment, Education, Money Management, Luxury and General Shopping). MasterCard also regularly releases Insights reports providing analysis of business dynamics, financial policies and regulatory activities in the Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa region. Over 80 Insights reports have been produced since 2004. MasterCard has also released a series of four books on Asian consumer insights, authored by Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, Global Economic Advisor for MasterCard Worldwide and published by John Wiley & Sons.
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